This remarkable gain can be attributed to a combination of favorable policy developments, positive analyst sentiment, and broader market optimism.

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First Solar (FSLR) – Intraday Market Update (May 13, 2025)

Price Action: As of today’s close, First Solar stock has surged sharply, trading around $191.60, up roughly 22.7% from yesterday’s close ($156.21).  

Volume has been heavy (nearly 20.0 million shares traded), well above the 30-day average (4.45M).  

The intraday range was roughly $175.24 – $195.37, reflecting strong volatility.  

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Analyst Upgrade Spurs Rally

The strongest driver of today’s jump is a Wolfe Research upgrade.  On May 13, Wolfe Research raised FSLR from “Peer Perform” to “Outperform” with a new $221 price target. Wolfe highlighted First Solar’s direct benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and favorable policy trends.  In particular, Wolfe Research noted that recent proposals in Congress – which slightly shorten the duration of the IRA’s 45X manufacturing tax credit – may actually clarify and lock in incentives for domestic solar manufacturing. With bipartisan backing of the IRA’s clean-energy subsidies, Wolfe Research argued these tax credits should remain largely intact, alleviating investor uncertainty.

This upgrade sent FSLR to the top of the S&P 500 leaderboard (jumping over 20% intraday). The firm’s analysis projects substantial upside (average analyst target $195) and cites First Solar’s position as the only large-scale U.S. solar module producer benefiting from the full IRA credits.  Broker sentiment has turned markedly bullish: Wolfe’s upgrade adds to recent broker confidence that the company’s long-term outlook is strong, even after conservative near-term guidance.

Policy Developments: Tax Credits and Trade

Clean Energy Tax Credits:  Government policy headlines have dominated FSLR’s outlook.  In recent days the House Ways and Means Committee unveiled a draft budget that phases out certain clean-energy tax credits earlier than under current law. Reports indicate Republicans plan to roll back or limit the IRA’s wind and solar credits after 2028. However, industry groups are mounting a “last-ditch” lobbying effort to protect these subsidies.  Importantly, analysts note that even a shorter timeline (e.g. moving expiration of the 45X credit from 2033 to 2026) would be less severe than feared and could cement clarity for investors. In other words, though the House GOP plan trims incentives, it also forces a resolution on credits – a net positive for stocks sensitive to IRA policy.

Tariffs and Trade: Earlier this week, markets rallied on U.S.–China trade news: a temporary truce on high tariffs was announced, which lifted broad equity indexes. For First Solar specifically, ongoing trade actions have been mixed. Late last year the Biden Administration imposed steep tariffs on solar imports from Southeast Asia, a move that directly benefits domestic producers like First Solar. The company’s management pointed out that these duties (and the strong U.S. commitment to renewables) should undergird long-term demand. So, while easing tariffs on China may relieve general economic pressure, the net impact on FSLR is that domestic producers remain advantaged by any remaining barriers to foreign competition.

Recent Company News

Earnings and Guidance:  First Solar’s latest quarter (Q1 2025, reported Apr 29) showed robust sales of $844.6M but a decline in net income amid tariff and demand headwinds.  Crucially, FSLR trimmed its 2025 sales forecast (lowering mid-point to $5.0B from $5.5B). That guided-down outlook sent shares down in late April.  However, management reiterated strong long-term fundamentals, emphasizing healthy order momentum and manufacturing scale.

Investors seem now to view the lowered guidance as a near-term blip, especially in light of clearer IRA rules.  (For context, in late February FSLR had raised full-year guidance when beating Q4 2024 estimates.)

Other Catalysts: In addition, First Solar has been active legally and operationally. The firm recently announced patent litigation against competitor JinkoSolar over advanced panel technology. While a bilateral legal fight, it underscores FSLR’s efforts to protect its tech edge. Moreover, First Solar continues to expand capacity – for example, opening a new plant in Alabama (announced 2024) and building a large Louisiana plant. Though not new today, these developments feed into the narrative of sustained growth under the IRA.

Sector and Market Context

Today’s move in FSLR also reflects broader renewable energy trends. Solar stocks have been rallying as investors anticipate a global clean-energy build-out. Utilities and climate-focused indices have outperformed in recent weeks. Institutional commentary (e.g. from JPMorgan as noted on TipRanks) labels the House proposal “significant positive” for companies like First Solar, since it enhances legislative clarity. In short, market participants see domestic solar manufacturers as political winners – they get both tariffs on foreign panels and explicit (if slightly trimmed) incentives on U.S. production.

General stock market strength is also a tailwind. Monday’s surging stock rally (Dow +2.8%, S&P +3.3%) on the U.S.–China trade truce set a bullish tone going into Tuesday. First Solar’s leap is a standout, but it came amid broad gains in technology and industrial names. Finally, commodity prices for polysilicon and glass are relatively stable, and inflation measures have moderated, all of which ease input-cost fears for solar makers.

Outlook

In sum, today’s 20%-plus spike in FSLR is a confluence of positive catalysts.

The Wolfe Research upgrade (citing IRA and anti-China sentiment) triggered buying interest.

Democratic tax credits look more secure after the initial shock of the House plan.

Earlier headwinds from tariffs and weak California residential demand have begun to abate or be absorbed.

Most analysts still rate First Solar as a “buy” or “outperform” given its unique positioning.

Investors should note that such sharp intraday moves can be volatile and profit-taking could emerge after hours. However, the fundamental drivers – strong IRA incentives (45X credit), domestic production advantage, and a reinforcing political backdrop – are likely to sustain momentum.

We believe that the key to today’s rally is clear – First Solar is finally being valued for its direct benefits under U.S. clean energy policy, and analysts have taken note.

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